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Learn/Market sizing and estimation

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Learn Market sizing and estimation

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B Basic

Anchor numbers and clean rounding7m
Segment the populationPro8m
Sizing one business from the insidePro8m

A Advanced

Stock versus flow: installed base and replacementPro9m
Sizing B2B marketsPro9m
Ranges, sensitivity, and the decisionPro8m

FlashcardsPro0/14
Basic quizPro80% passes
Advanced quizPro80% passes
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Market sizing and estimation

0
of 6 lessons: 0
of 14 cards

Flashcards Start the first lesson

Size anything from a few round anchors: segment the population, count one location, turn an installed base into annual sales, size a B2B market, and say which assumption matters.

BBasic3 lessons

1Anchor numbers and clean roundingA handful of round numbers carries most sizing questions. Memorize them, round on purpose, and say that you are rounding.7 min
2Segment the populationProOne average user hides the market. Split people into groups that behave differently, size each, and add them up.8 min
3Sizing one business from the insideProHow much does one laundromat, garage, or clinic make? Count capacity, then utilization, then price. This is the supply side question in its purest form.8 min
Basic quizPro10 questions, 80% passes

AAdvanced3 lessons

4Stock versus flow: installed base and replacementProMany markets are annual purchases of things people already own. Annual sales are the installed base divided by its lifetime, plus net growth. Confusing the two is the most common sizing error.9 min
5Sizing B2B marketsProBusiness markets start from a count of businesses, not people. Segment by size, because a 5 person office and a 5,000 person company buy very differently.9 min
6Ranges, sensitivity, and the decisionProA market size is only useful next to the decision it informs. Narrow total market to what the client can reach and win, give a range, and say which assumption moves it most.8 min
Advanced quizPro10 questions, 80% passes