Waddle Street
Programs
  • All programs
  • Insight programs
  • What changed
  • Competitions
Networking
  • Contacts
  • Find people
  • Write a note
Prep
  • Learn
  • Drills
  • My answers
  • Markets
  • Resume review
  • Resources
Industries
  • Overview
  • Find your fit
  • Guides
Waddle Street
LearnDrillsMy answersMarketsResume reviewResources

Learn

Learn/Market sizing and estimation
LearnMarket sizing and estimation

0 of 6 lessons, sign in to save

B Basic

  • Anchor numbers and clean rounding7m
  • Segment the populationPro8m
  • Sizing one business from the insidePro8m

A Advanced

  • Stock versus flow: installed base and replacementPro9m
  • Sizing B2B marketsPro9m
  • Ranges, sensitivity, and the decisionPro8m
  • FlashcardsPro0/14
  • Basic quizPro80% passes
  • Advanced quizPro80% passes
  • Terms

Basic, lesson 1 of 3

Anchor numbers and clean rounding

A handful of round numbers carries most sizing questions. Memorize them, round on purpose, and say that you are rounding.

7 min, 3 checks

1The anchors worth knowing

AnchorRound figureUse it for
US populationAbout 330 millionConsumer products, per person checks
US householdsAbout 130 million, about 2.5 people eachAppliances, utilities, subscriptions
People per year of ageAbout 4 million (330M spread over about 80 years)Age bands: students, new drivers, retirees
Working yearAbout 50 weeks, 250 working days, 2,000 hoursLabor costs, B2B usage, utilization
Hours in a year8,760Capacity of anything that runs around the clock
Round figures for case use. Say them as assumptions; the interviewer may hand you different ones.

The flat age curve is a simplification: there are fewer people over 80, and birth cohorts differ. For a sizing case it is close enough, and saying so out loud earns credit.

Check 1

Using about 4 million people per year of age, how many Americans are 18 to 22 years old (five ages), in millions?

million

Check 2

A machine runs 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, at 90% uptime. How many hours does it run a year? Round to the nearest whole hour.

hours

2Rounding on purpose

Round each input to a number you can multiply in your head, and round in opposite directions when you can so the errors cancel. 330 million times 28% is hard; 330 times 30% is 99, call it 100 million, and note you rounded up twice.

Keep units on every line: people, households, units per year, dollars per unit. Most sizing errors are a lost zero or a monthly figure multiplied as if it were annual.

Check 3

Which anchor should a dishwasher sales estimate start from?

Terms in this lesson: Utilization.

How this gets asked in an interview

Interviewers do not check your population figure to the million. They check that you pick the right unit (people, households, businesses) and keep it straight.

  • How many 16 year olds are in the US?
  • Where would you start this estimate?
  • Why did you start from households?
Drill Market sizing, ten questions

3 checks in this lesson. Sign in to keep your progress.

Next lesson